Young adults have been leaving Newton and not coming back.
That’s been the basis for the argument in favor of more housing, high-density housing and housing diversity in Newton in recent years, and there’s data that backs it up.
Home prices are high in Newton, and for a lot of people just starting out in life or raising young kids, Newton is not an option.
Moving out
Boston Indicators, a research institute, published a study in April showing evidence that an increasing proportion of adults between the ages of 25 to 44 are moving out of Massachusetts.
Recent census data show that Newton’s demographic trends are moving in step with the rest of the state.
The demographic shown to be moving out is composed of people at the beginning of their adult lives, “recent graduates, young professionals, folks looking to start a family or buy a home,” according to Boston Indicators.
These patterns of younger adults forecast the future of the city and the state.
In Newton, the percentage of residents between the ages of 25-44 has dropped 9.9 percentage points between 2000 and 2022, according to census data.
These younger adults comprised just 18.7 percent of the city’s population in 2022. That’s 16,371 people out of the total population of 87,382 in that year.
In contrast, the proportion of the next oldest age group—45-to-64 -year-olds—grew between 2000 and 2022, increasing from 25.1 percent of the population in 2000 to 28.3 percent in 2022.
This trend is in line with the Boston Indicators study, which showed that the rate of outmigration for older adults was “low and stable.” Comparatively fewer older people have moved out of state.
Boston Indicators said that the higher rates of outmigration for younger adults is probably caused by the high cost of housing in the state.
Since the 25-to-44-year-old age group is likely to be in the beginning stages of their career and family lives, they are more vulnerable to the expensive and scarce housing market in Massachusetts, Boston Indicators said.
Older adults are more likely to own their homes, even to have paid them off, which makes moving less desirable, according to the think tank.
Options needed
More diverse housing options could help to make living in Newton a more viable option for younger people, according to Amy Dain, a public policy consultant and researcher who focuses on housing.
She said the city can achieve cheaper housing through zoning changes, forecasting that the Village Center Overlay District zoning plan passed by the city council last December will help to open up the market to more young people.
“It’s really important for Newton to be playing its role and to allow for diverse housing to support a diverse population,” Dain said.
She said that even though the housing issue will need state-wide changes, local housing reform is still impactful.
“It definitely is a problem in need of regional or larger-scale solutions, but it doesn’t let anybody off the hook,” Dain said.